Article by Justin Hayslett, Sr. Global Analyst with Lombard Global, Inc.   www.justinhayslett.com.

Edited  by William Billeaud, President of Lombard Global, Inc.

Consider adopting these emerging markets into your global strategy

Economies worldwide have been caught in chaotic, and sometimes severe market conditions. Smart businesses, however, have used the downturn to expand aggressively. In addition to the oft mentioned BRICs and Western Europe, there are some new countries on the rise that you might want to include in your global strategy.

Two of these emerging markets include Poland and Turkey. They are being called, among others, The New Tigers.  Market Watch goes as far to say that, “these nations have the potential to reshape the global economy.”

These countries both have:

  • Youthful populations
  • Relatively low debt levels
  • Expanding middle classes

 Poland

  • Poland escaped the major 2008 recession. Moreover, their economy has actually grown 15% since then.  As a comparison, the next best performer Slovakia grew 8%.
  • Poland’s market is one of the best developed in Eastern Europe and the EU.
  • They are strongly independent (export-driven and internal consumer market potential).
  • The GDP per capita has continued to see strong growth, now reaching over $20,000.
  • Poland’s IPOs in the first quarter reached eleven, making it fifth in the world.
  • In 2010 the Polish banking industry saw a tremendous rise in profits at 40% growth.
  • Likewise, the Warsaw Stock Exchange grew 15% in 2010.
  • Poland’s mutual funds grew steadily for the second straight year.
  • Poland’s business environment score from The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) grew from 6.91 in 2007-11 to 7.23 for 2012-16.
  • This means its global ranking with EIU rose from  32nd to 29th.
  • Part of this growth is due to large size of its internal market and the great performance of the Polish financial system.
  • There are government plans to reduce red tape and other barriers to business, as well as plans to modernize and privatize Polish transportation.
  • The Polish economy grew at a better rate in 2011 than three years previous years combined.
  • In a survey by the UN Conference, Poland ranked sixth worldwide for foreign direct investment (FDI) attractiveness.
  • In 2011 its FDI inflows reached €9.93 billion, up from €6.74 billion in 2010.

Turkey

  • Turkey did not escape a blow during the recession battle, but did recover quickly. It is estimated that they have grown 9% above pre-recession levels.
  • They are incredibly well-positioned geographically and strategically for trade. Turkey has direct access to the Mediterranean and Black Seas, is between important energy markets and sits at a crossroads historically between Europe and Asia.
  • Their young and growing population make them worlds 17th most populous.
  • Turkey is particularly well-positioned to capitalize within the European market and MENA markets.
  • Country GDP per capita has risen to over $15,000 in 2010.
  • While most other European countries have been in turmoil,  Turkey has seen nine quarters of domestic growth. This is much higher than average EU growth.
  • Incredibly, Turkey has the best mobile-network coverage in the world. A study by the World Economic Forum rated Turkey number one out of 138 countries.
  • GDP has slowed somewhat to a still strong 5.2%. GDP has a strong overall growth pattern.
  • The economic growth and performance of Turkey is set  to beat out others in the EU in the future.
  • The global business environment ranking fom the EIU, rose four places to 49th.

These stars are not without potential problems such as high unemployment. But there is big growth potential, particularly if compared to their regional counterparts.

Clearly, these two emerging economies are to be watched and should be considered as favorites in the next phase of your global expansion strategy; particularly if you have stable operations and business in the BRICs and Western Europe.

References:
Crisis defines Poland, Turkey Appeal. Two countries poised for growth, but threatened by euro-zone crisis. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-defines-poland-turkey-appeal-2012-05-23?pagenumber=1
 
Economist Intelligence Unit on Poland and Turkey.
 
The Worlds ‘New Tigers’ lie ready to pounce – These nations have the potential to reshape the global economy. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worlds-new-tigers-lie-ready-to-pounce-2012-05-23
 
Turkey puts faith in new generation – Interview: As economy outperforms, Turkcell CEO looks ahea – http://www.marketwatch.com/story/turkey-puts-faith-in-new-generation-2012-05-23
 
Picture By: by patrickt